It’s hard to admit, but we might have been wrong about the Knicks. We wrote them off completely against the Celtics, and now they stand on the brink of their first Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 25 years. On the other side of the bracket, the Timberwolves will look to ice things against a Golden State team that put forth a pathetic second half effort in Game 4. It’s likely that tonight’s games set half of the conference championship brackets, so let’s get right into it.

Here’s what we've got today:

• Knicks vs. Celtics Pick

• Warriors vs. Timberwolves Pick

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Knicks vs. Celtics Pick

Maybe we’re overcorrecting, but this seems like a ridiculous spread. The Knicks are rolling and playing their best basketball of the season, while the Celtics are laid low in more ways than one. The injury to Jayson Tatum, aside from devastating on-court effects, has to hurt an already-damaged Boston locker room psyche. Add in the fact that Kristaps Porzingis is playing through illness, and not doing so at a high level, and it’s pretty surprising to see the Celtics as favorites.

The Knicks will have a much easier go of things on defense without having to deal with Jayson Tatum. The Celtics will likely go small, inserting Payton Pritchard into the starting lineup while rolling with Al Horford at the five. That means OG Anunoby will be assigned to Jaylen Brown, while Mikal Bridges continues to deal with Derrick White. Josh Hart will take Pritchard, while Jalen Brunson hides on Jrue Holiday. Overall, these matchups are obviously significantly easier to deal with than if Tatum were on the floor.

Additionally, Tatum’s injury is a devastating blow to a Boston team that was already short of reliable bench players. Sam Hauser hasn’t played in some time with an injury, leaving only Luke Kornet, Porzingis, and Pritchard coming off of the bench. Now the bench will be reduced to Kornet, a hobbled Porzingis, and whoever Joe Mazzulla trusts most out of the guys he deemed unplayable at the start of the series.

On the flip side, while the Knicks only have a couple of playable backups, they have looked far more effective than Boston’s reserves. New York center Mitchell Robinson has had a huge impact in the last two games, and the switch to a smaller Boston lineup could create even more opportunities for the big man. Miles McBride has given solid minutes every time he’s played, something that should continue here.

Overall, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Celtics fight hard and steal one here. Despite that, the spread is far too large to justify backing Boston. Take the Knicks to cover.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Pick

Much of what was written in Monday morning’s newsletter applies to this game too. The only difference is that the spread is double what it was for Monday’s game, a recognition of the state of the Warriors’ offense.

Despite that poor showing from the Golden State offense, this spread feels like an overreaction from the oddsmakers. The Warriors did have to go on a late run to make things look as close as they did, but there’s reason to believe an improved performance is coming here. Jimmy Butler was surprisingly passive throughout Game 4, shooting only nine times in a game where Golden State’s secondary option was Jonathan Kuminga. That won’t happen again in a potential elimination game. Brandin Podziemski was also horrendous from the floor, shooting 3/14 including four missed threes. Despite two of their offensive focal points underdelivering by a wide margin, the Warriors held on to lose by seven.

It helps that Minnesota is now due for some regression. The Timberwolves shot an insane 47% from deep last game, a feat that is near-impossible to replicate. As a team, they also shot 88% from the charity stripe, another number that they are likely to fail to reach again. This is just too many points for the Timberwolves to cover, even if they are at home against a hobbled opponent. Golden State will cover tonight.

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