Kentucky Derby Controversy:
We have some controversy with the Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit’s win is now under investigation after blood tests determined an elevated presence of betamethasone, a regulated anti-inflammatory used to manage pain. Churchill Downs has suspended trainer Bob Baffert pending the final results of the investigation, which will include a second round of testing.
What does that mean for bettors?
If Medina Spirit is stripped of the 2021 Kentucky Derby victory, second-place Mandaloun would be deemed the winner … but bettors on Mandaloun would still be out of luck.
“All bets will stand as settled,” said John Ewing, data analyst for BetMGM. “The race result has already been determined official and paid. Disqualifications from positive drug tests will not change the results.”
The money involved is not insubstantial. Bettors wagered $2,871,557 on Medina Spirit to win at 12-1 odds through TwinSpires, the Kentucky Derby’s official betting partner. Another $1,352,157 was bet on Mandaloun to win at 26-1 odds. Those totals don’t include the wagering on place and show results, or any more exotic wages like exactas or trifectas.
The reasons for an all-bets-are-settled policy are obvious. Reopening payouts after a changed result would be impossibly complex.
But damn - I would be steamed if I laid down on Mandaloun, and was basically cheated out of my pay out.
This is still an ongoing investigation and the result of the second blood test has not been determined yet.
NBA Scoring Leader & MVP Race:
The regular season is winding down in the NBA - with only a few games remaining in the season.
Currently Stephen Curry is leading the PPG scoring race with a 31.8 average. Bradley Beal is hot on his heals with 31.4, and Joel Embiid rounds out the top 3 at 29.2.
These were the odds in December. If you put down money on Curry - we commend you.
As for the MVP race, Niokla Jokic is the heavy favorite to take it down at -1950.
Week 1 NFL Lines:
The week 1 NFL lines are out already - and they're looking interesting. One matchup to watch? The Chicago Bears taking on the Los Angeles Rams.
Justin Fields will likely get the start going against Matthew Stafford. Rook vs. Vet.
All eyes will also be on the Jacksonville Jaguars and their new star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars are favored over the Houston Texans.
If I was a Houston player, I'd take that personally, and do everything possible take Trevor's debut miserable.
Tim Tebow is making a comeback - and there are props circulating around his return.
The operator set the over/under on 2021 receiving yards for Tebow at 12.5 yards, the equivalent of one or two catches during the regular season.
DraftKings is also offering a prop on whether Tim Tebow will score a touchdown in 2021. Over 0.5 touchdowns opened at +500. Under 0.5 touchdowns opened at -770. That’s an implied probability of 88.5 percent on those odds that Tebow will not score a touchdown during the 2021 NFL season.
Tebow last made an NFL roster in 2012 with the New York Jets, playing in 12 games and starting in two. He had 32 rushing attempts for 102 yards. He was targeted once but did not record a reception, perhaps another reason why the Tim Tebow props are so low.
Where will Aaron Rodgers end up?
More NFL intrigue with the Aaron Rodgers controversy. He's unhappy, and he wants out of Greenbay. But where will he end up?
The oddsmakers, in all their wisdom, have put out lines for that too!
The Vegas Raiders are an interesting pick. They may want to make a splash.
PGA Tour - AT&T Byron Nelson
The PGA Tour rolls along at the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
Bryson DeChambeau is the favorite (+850) to take down the top spot. Here are some picks from around the landscape:
- Bryson DeChambeau, an eight-time PGA Tour champion and one of the Vegas co-favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five.
- DeChambeau's inconsistent performances can be directly attributed to his driving accuracy percentage. In fact, DeChambeau enters this week's event ranked 166th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (55.22), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at TPC Craig Ranch. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the AT&T Byron Nelson 2021 field.
- Brooks Koepka, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Koepka has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
- Scottie Scheffler to Win +1800: Scheffler has a fair amount of experience competing and playing well in Texas, making this number a little more interesting than if the tournament was elsewhere.
- Jason Day to Win +6000: With back-to-back tournaments gaining with his irons, Day’s presents some value in this range if he can turn around his putting, which is usually the best part of his game.
- Sung Kang Top 20 +800: Kang presents some value this week with how well he plays in Texas. An Irving, Texas, resident, Kang has his best performances in the Lonestar State, winning this tournament at Trinity Forest in 2019 and finishing second at the 2017 Shell Houston Open.
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Oliveira has won eight straight, including an impressive decision victory over former lightweight champion Tony Ferguson last December.
Here are some value picks we found across the landscape:
- Kevin Aguilar Moneyline (+100): Aguilar has the striking and experience advantages to win this fight via decision.
- Mazany Beats Cachoeira via Decision (+100): Mazany has the ability outstrike Cachoeira and win via decision.
- Shevchenko Beats Lee via Decision (+130): Shevchenko will win largely due to her advantage in striking. Her Muay Thai background will be the difference in this bout as she racks up the points with a more balanced striking attack.
- Grundy Beats Vannata (-115): Once Grundy gets Vannata to the mat, it’s all over with. Either Grundy gets the stoppage or he grinds out a decision victory.
- Schnell vs Bontorin Ends Inside the Distance (+135): Combined, these two fighters have gone the distance in just eight of their 39 pro fights.
- Barboza to Beat Burgos (+115): Burgos will come straight forward which should play into Barboza’s game plan. Both men are capable with punching, but Barboza has the edge in the kicking department. The kicks are going to be the difference in this fight and why Edson will win (+115).
- Chookagian to Win via Decision (-105): Chookagian will get the victory via decision (-105). She’s the better overall striker between the two and has the experience advantage as well.
- Michael Chandler’s Moneyline (+115): Four of Oliveira’s eight pro losses have come via TKO/KO in the UFC against the following notable strikers: Donald Cerrone, Cub Swanson, Max Holloway, and Paul Felder.
Looking at Dariush vs Ferguson, Dariush has been consistent, for those eyeing the win line. He is 6-0, with two decisions, two K0/TK0 and two submission triumphs. Ferguson, who had the title in 2017, had a rough 2020. He was a beaten favorite, stopped by Justin Gaethje last May, and then was decisioned by Oliveira. Dariush is favored despite being ranked ninth in the division. Ferguson is fifth.
In the Burgos vs Barboza bout, Barboza is 2-5 in his last seven fights but against world-class opposition. Burgos comes off a defeat to sixth-ranked featherweight Josh Emmett. One fighter is sliding down, another can’t get over the top.
Oliveira vs Chandler submission at FanDuel Sportsbook for +165 covers both fighters. Chandler is +188 at DraftKings Sportsbook to be the winner by submission. Oliveira’s win over Ferguson justifies his favored status.
Now that you have something to chew on, let's check out the sharp bets:
What's Trending - The Quick Action ⚡
Find out where the sharp money is laying.
Pulled from sportsinsights.com
NBA Line Projections:
Pulled from sportsinsights.com
NHL Line Projections:
Pulled from sportsinsights.com
Pulled from sportsinsights.com
MLB Line Projections:
How to look at this:
- This shows you where the bets (#) and the amount of money ($) are laying down across different bets.
- The interesting stuff is when the number of tickets and the amount of money differs.
Do with it what you will!
Short and sweet this week. Upcoming we have plenty of great events to cover - the NBA playoffs (and new play in tournament) will be kicking off shortly, and more.
Good luck out there!
We'll have more lines, more analysis, more opportunities and more picks from around the sports world next week. Be sure to subscribe to premium if you want to make sure you don't miss a thing and see regular updates regarding the sharp money: https://www.bettorsecrets.com/subscribe/.
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We'll see you again next week. Good luck out there!
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