💸 UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

• 6 min read
💸 UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

So before we dive in to the events this week, let's do a quick run-down of the highlights from last week:

UEFA Champions League:

  • Manchester City took down Borussia Dortmund 2-1 (PAYOUTS: -155 Moneyline, Push on O/U, -125 Spread)
  • Liverpool tied Real Madrid 0-0 (PAYOUTS: +295 DRAW on the Moneyline, Under on O/U (+105), -125 Spread)

With the results of the previous games on the 13th:

  • Porto beat Chelsea 1-0
  • Bayern beat PSG 1-0

We are down to the Semi-Final leg of the UEFA Champions League kicking off on the 27th.

  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea (April 27th)
  • PSG vs. Man City (April 28th)
  • Man City vs. PSG (May 4th)
  • Chelsea vs. Real Madrid (May 5th)

Here are the updated odds for each team to win it all:

PGA Tour: RBC Heritage

Stewart Cink came in at +15000 odds to claim the title, and took it down in style finishing 19-under.  We tried finding a ticket for a winner here, but were hard pressed.  

Have one?  Send it in to michael@bettorsecrets.com.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum

Gastelum fought admirably, but ultimately Rob Whittaker was just too much for him to handle.

Whittaker took all 5 rounds unanimously, and for those that followed the general consensus predictions, you were well rewarded.  This is what the picks that we highlighted last week were:

  1. Whittaker to win (-280)
  2. Whittaker by points (+135)
  3. Fight to go the distance - Yes (-132)

NBA Highlights:

Steph Curry on a scorcher

He may not bet eligible for the MVP award because of his team's record, but Steph Curry is playing out of his mind, dropping another 49-piece against the 76ers.  

Curry's 40.8-point scoring average during the past 10 days has helped him maintain the scoring lead by a few percentage points over the Wizard's Bradley Beal, who Curry faces tonight in Washington.

Interested in betting on the points + rebounds + assist totals by player?  Check out the props at your favorite sportsbook:

Given the heater that Steph is on, that Over at 47.5 is looking juicy.

Now let's dig into where the sharp money is betting today:

Find out where the sharp money is laying.

NBA:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NBA Line Projections:

NHL:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NHL Line Projections:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB Line Projections:

How to look at this:

  1. This shows you where the bets (#) and the amount of money ($) are laying down across different bets.
  2. The interesting stuff is when the number of tickets and the amount of money differs.  

Do with it what you will!


UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 (Saturday, April 24th)

It's no surprise that Kamaru Usman is a heavy favorite in this one.  He's 18-1, looking incredible and is coming fresh off a KO of Gilbert Burns in February.  Here are the odds of the different permutations playing out for the headliner:

It's hard to bet against Usman in this one - but betting with him on the moneyline gets you little value (at -400 odds).  You're better served looking to the undercard, lacing together a parlay, or betting on a prop (method of victory like KO/TKO might be a better bet).    

Another super interesting matchup in this one is between Weili Zhang and Rose Namajunas.  Tighter odds in this one:

  • The fight between Weili Zhang and Rose Namajunas has -130 odds to go the distance.
  • Weili Zhang has +200 odds to win the fight by TKO, KO, or Submission.
  • Rose Namajunas has +425 odds to win by 5 round decision.

Method of Victory:
- Zhang by KO/TKO: (+270)
- Zhang by Points: (+160)
- Zhang by Submission: (+1400)
- Namajunas by KO/TKO: (+550)
- Namajunas by Points: (+460)
- Namajunas by Submission: (+800)

Let's see some of the picks for the highlighted fights in this from around the landscape.

Picks:

Tapology Fight Predictions:

UFC 261 Zhang-Namajunas prediction is from Tapology Fight Predictions.
Winner: Weili Zhang (64%)
Method of Victory: Decision/Points (50%)

Bodylock MMA:

Matthew Wells: – Picking Kamaru Usman to win by decision

Drake Riggs: – Picking Kamaru Usman to win by TKO

Patrick Auger: – Picking Kamaru Usman to win by decision

Reasoning: “It should be a clear cut gameplan for Usman and he should be able to stick to it, but if he tries to strike too much… it gives Masvidal an opening.”

CBS Sports (MMA):

Randy Brown vs. Alex Oliveira:

Ian Parker Pick: He is backing Randy Brown (-155) to get his hand raised against Alex Oliveira (+135) in a welterweight bout.

Reasoning: Brown (12-4) has shown signs of promise since joining the UFC five years ago, but has been unable to gain consistent traction with a 5-4 record. Most of his losses have come against upper-tier competition, including a stoppage defeat last year to No. 6-ranked Vicente Luque.

"Brown's striking game continues to improve and should be the deciding factor," Parker told SportsLine.

SB Nation (MMA Mania):

Randy Brown vs. Alex Oliveira:

Pick: Brown via unanimous decision

Reasoning: “Rude Boy” will have four inches of height and 1.5 inches of reach on Oliveira.

“Cowboy” definitely seems to be hitting the point of diminishing returns. He fades late with clockwork regularity and has struggled to find the early finish in recent years, instead relying on static top control when forced past the first round. That’s not going to cut it against Brown, who’s adept enough on the feet to survive the early blitz and has the motor to take over down the stretch.

Dwight Grant vs. Stefan Sekulic:

Pick: Sekulic via split decision

Reasoning: Though Sekulic is coming off a big layoff and wasn’t particularly eye-catching against Emeev, Grant’s own inconsistency and low output have me smelling an upset. This is more gut than anything, but I like Sekulic to grind his way to a narrow victory.

Karl Roberson vs. Brendan Allen

Pick: Allen via first round submission

Reasoning: Like Cezar “Mutante,” Glover Teixeira, Wellington Turman and Vettori before him, Allen has the tools to put Roberson on his back early and often. From there, it’s just a matter of time before he forces the tap.

Pat Sabatini vs. Tristan Connelly

Pick: Sabatini via first round submission

Reasoning: Sabatini is younger, at least Connelly’s match in most areas of the game, and has far less baggage weighing him down. In the end, his quality chain-wrestling carries him to Connelly’s back and a first-round tapout.

Happy betting!


We'll have more lines, more analysis, more opportunities and more picks from around the sports world next week.  Be sure to subscribe to premium if you want to make sure you don't miss a thing and see regular updates regarding the sharp money: https://www.bettorsecrets.com/subscribe/.

Want to see more?  Write us at michael@bettorsecrets.com.

We'll see you again next week.  Good luck out there!


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