💸 UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals

• 7 min read
💸 UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals

Masters Retro:

Congratulations to Hideki Matsuyama, and to those that put money down on him +4000 pre-tournament.  He was the top 32nd most-bet golfer to win.    

Most lost a lot of money on this Masters, but at least one ticket we saw out there paid out (on a parlay):

Just look at those returns.  

But even if that was you, remember, stay humble - like Hideki himself.  The mini-van driving, coach flying, legend:

The biggest surprise form this Masters?  Dustin Johnson missed the cut.  The guy who owned Augusta in 2020.  

Does that matter to oddsmakers?  Apparently not.  At the RBC Heritage tournament this weekend he is still the favorite to win at +1200.

In addition to the PGA Tour events, here are the other major events happening this week/weekend:

  • UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals (Wednesday, 4/14/21)
  • UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum - UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, US ( Saturday, 4/17/21)
  • English Premier League (4/16 onward)
  • And of course the NBA, MLB, and NHL are ongoing

Let's talk Champions League:

UEFA Champions League:

UEFA Champions League quarter finals are now in their second leg, with Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City and Liverpool vs. Madrid.

The lines:

Odds to win it all (from April 6):

Here are the picks across the landscape:

Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City

Action Network:

Pick: Dortmund or Draw (+138)

Reasoning: Dortmund will again be without star winger Jadon Sancho due to injury, but Sancho missed the first leg as well.

If Dortmund is at close to full strength,  I think the club is worth a shot here. The results haven’t been great of late, but the xG numbers paint a much rosier picture. They have a superstar forward in Erling Haaland, who has racked up an unreal 31 goals in 30 Bundesliga and Champions League appearances combined this season.

Plus, the Black and Yellows have scored in every match but one this season, and that was way back in September against Augsburg.

Manchester City has gone out at this stage the past three seasons, with Guardiola having a tendency to overthink his lineup. I’m not saying the Cityzens won’t advance here, but I like Dortmund’s chances of at least earning a draw at home.

CBS Sports/Sportsline Model:

Pick: The model is leaning under 3.5 goals in Wednesday's matchup between Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City.

Reasoning: The Cityzens are one of the best defensive teams on the planet, as they've allowed a total of 29 goals in 49 matches across all competitions this season and only two in nine Champions League games.

However, their offense has been stalling a bit of late, recording fewer than three goals in each of the last five outings, and their top scorers have not been producing.

Sports Betting Dime:

Pick: Pick: BVB and Man City to draw (+310)

Reasoning: It almost goes without saying that City starts odds-on for the win but this will be much more even than the bookies are suggesting. BVB, minus the distraction of a Bundesliga run-in, will throw everything at this, and with Haaland being touted with a move to one of the European giants this summer, there is a feeling he will want to go out with a bang.

Liverpool vs. Madrid

Action Network:

Pick: Real Madrid +0.5 (-113)

Reasoning: Even though Real Madrid can afford to lose by a goal in this match, I still think it’s undervalued. Tactically, Los Blancos are one of the best teams in the world and should be able to absorb Liverpool’s attack and hit them on the counter.

Therefore, I am backing Real Madrid to get at least a draw from this match by backing their spread of +0.5 at -113 odds at DraftKings as my top selection.

CBS Sports/Sportsline Model:

Pick: The model is leaning under on the goal total

Reasoning: Real Madrid has not lost in its last 13 matches, winning six straight while outscoring opponents 15-5.

Liverpool has allowed just six goals in nine UCL matches, third-fewest in the competition.

Goal.com

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5 (1.80) with bet365 and looks an excellent selection for this quarter-final second leg clash.

Reasoning: Madrid's only clean sheet in their last eight games came against basement club Eibar in La Liga, yet at the other end of the pitch the Spanish champions have been in strong form.

Now, for the NBA, NHL and MLB fans, here is where the sharp money is laying:

Find out where the sharp money is laying.

NBA:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NBA Line Projections:

NHL:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NHL Line Projections:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB Line Projections:

How to look at this:

  1. This shows you where the bets (#) and the amount of money ($) are laying down across different bets.
  2. The interesting stuff is when the number of tickets and the amount of money differs.  

Do with it what you will!


English Premier League:

The Premier League rolls on.  Here are some lines and picks for the upcoming games.

Picks:

Everton vs. Tottenham:

Pick: Sports Mole likes a 1-1 draw in this one.  

Reasoning: The two teams played out a 1-1 draw when they last locked horns at Goodison Park in the Premier League in November 2019, and we are backing the same scoreline on this occasion. A point would not help either in terms of their top-four ambitions, but we are finding it tough to separate them here.

New Castle United vs. West Ham United:

Pick: Football Whisperers like a draw in this one as well.

Reasoning: West Ham head into this game as the favourites but Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three games against the Hammers. Newcastle have drawn their last three home games and West Ham have only won one of their last five away games in league and cup.

Arsenal vs. Fulham:

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Fulham (+331) and over 2.25 goals

Reasoning: Alphonse Areola will look after the net for Fulham. So far in his career, Areola has allowed 204 goals and has totaled 527 stops in 209 starts. He has conceded 0.98 goals per 90 minutes while holding a mark of 106-54-49. He is the owner of a save % of 73.5 and his clean sheet rate is currently at 41.6%. Areola has accumulated 87 shutouts while defending 718 shots attempted against him in 18,830 mins in his career

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum

Picks:

Covers.com:

Pick:

  • Whittaker to win (-280)
  • Whittaker by points (+135)
  • Fight to go the distance - Yes (-132)

Reasoning: While Whittaker is known for his kickboxing, he's also a strong wrestler who makes good use of level changes. With Whittaker possessing the more versatile offensive toolbox, back him to win this bout.

Sportsline:

Pick:  This week at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum we can tell you Marley is backing Jeremy Stephens (-140) to get the win against Drakkar Klose (+120) in a matchup of rugged lightweights in a co-main event.

Combat Press:


We'll have more lines, more analysis, more opportunities and more picks from around the sports world next week.  Be sure to subscribe to premium if you want to make sure you don't miss a thing and see regular updates regarding the sharp money: https://www.bettorsecrets.com/subscribe/.

Want to see more?  Write us at michael@bettorsecrets.com.

We'll see you again next week.  Good luck out there!


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