💸 The NFL Draft & Kentucky Derby

• 8 min read
💸 The NFL Draft & Kentucky Derby

For those of you in Florida, congratulations on nearing sports betting nirvana...

California and Texas, unfortunately you'll have to wait.

UFC 261 was a good one, with plenty of knockouts, weird upsets and craziness.  One thing was expected - an Usman win (-400 odds).  But not a win by knockout.

That's a bad man.

Now, let's dig into the goings on with the NFL draft.

NFL Draft  

According to the NFL Draft pundits and the betting markets, the first two selections appear to be a formality at this point and that will certainly help bettors with their wagers on the remaining 30 picks in the first round.

  1. Trevor Lawrence to the Jacksonville Jaguars (-100000 odds according to BetMGM)
  2. Zach Wilson to the New York Jets (-10000 odds according to DraftKings)

Those aren't typos.

Despite the lowest value you can imagine, there are still a significant number of bets that are rolling in on Lawrence to go #1.  That's how much of a lock he's considered to be.

Also just an aside - the endorsements that top players are interested in are changing.  

The future is here.

Now, that brings us to pick #3 - where the speculation is rampant.  The San Francisco 49ers traded three number 1 picks for the right to pick #3 overall in the 2021 draft.

If that's not an all-in bet, I don't know what is.  The 49ers have given us very little to go off in terms of their own comments, but that hasn't stopped the national sports media from speculating wildly about who the pick will be.

The consensus front runner?  Mac Jones.  

Much to the chagrin of 49er fans.

But where there is smoke, there is fire.  And the odds makers tend to agree with that consensus.  Here are the lines for the #3 pick:

Need some more data?  

Ultimately, you are betting on the psychology of Kyle Shanahan with this one.  What do you think?  

At the end of the day, Mac Jones completes a higher percentage of his passes than any other QB in the draft.  His accuracy is second to none.  At this point it seems like a sure bet he'll be the Quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers after this weekend.

Here are some other prop odds you can find at your local sportsbook:

Odds to be a Top 5 and Top 10 Pick:

Odds to be Selected First Overall:

Odds to Be Taken in Picks 2-5

Here is the Round 1 draft order.  May the odds be in your favor.

Round 1

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. New York Jets
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans)
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles)
7. Detroit Lions
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Denver Broncos
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. New York Giants
12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers)
13. Los Angeles Chargers
14. Minnesota Vikings
15. New England Patriots
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Las Vegas Raiders
18. Miami Dolphins
19. Washington Football Team
20. Chicago Bears
21. Indianapolis Colts
22. Tennessee Titans
23. New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks)
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams)
26. Cleveland Browns
27. Baltimore Ravens
28. New Orleans Saints
29. Green Bay Packers
30. Buffalo Bills
31. Baltimore Ravens (from Kansas City Chiefs)
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kentucky Derby:

This is a jam packed week!  One of the biggest betting events of the year is this weekend, the Kentucky Derby.

It's looking to be a wet one, and that Seinfeld episode comes to mind.  The question is - which horse is a mudder?

Here area few primer pieces that will get you psyched and prepared:

  • Stephen Edelson of the Asbury Park Press offers a quick primer on each horse set to run in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
  • Bob Ehalt from America’s Best Racing has another good piece of information as a starting point for Kentucky Derby research: a look at which horses could benefit from a wet track, including Derby favorite Essential Quality.
  • In another good piece for America’s Best Racing, Christina Moore takes a closer look at the pluses and minuses of post position draws for the Derby.
  • Here’s an interesting Kentucky Derby trend, pointed out by Bob Ehalt of BloodHorse: since 2011, each Derby winner had won their final race before the Run for the Roses. Mandaloun is looking to reverse that trend.
  • Reinier Macatangy of Horse Racing Nation lays out a perfect scenario for Rock Your World in the Kentucky Derby. One part of that plan will hinge on the post draw.

Here are some picks from around the landscape:

CBS Sports:

Bob Weir of CBS Sports is high on 30-to-1 long shot Soup and Sandwich, who is set to make the fourth start of his career at the Kentucky Derby.

Jody Demling has called the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks all but three times in the last 12 years

One shocker: Demling is fading Known Agenda, even though he's one of the top 2021 Kentucky Derby favorites. In fact, Demling says Known Agenda doesn't even hit the board. Demling was impressed with Known Agenda's win at the Florida Derby in March. He also says he's in capable hands with trainer Todd Pletcher.

However, drawing post No. 1, also known as the inside rail, has Demling keeping Known Agenda off the board. While the horse on the rail has the shortest total distance to run, it also risks getting squeezed off the pace before the first turn if it doesn't break well. That can spell trouble for any horse, and Known Agenda has had a few shaky runs this year, including a fifth-place finish at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February. That makes Known Agenda one of the 2021 Kentucky Derby horses you should fade at Churchill Downs, according to Demling.

Another stunner: Demling loves Highly Motivated, even though he's a 10-1 long shot in the latest Kentucky Derby 2021 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Highly Motivated will have to overcome poor history of horses coming out of the No. 17 post, but Demling believes he has the potential to win the "Run for the Roses."

Sports Illustrated:

Picks:

Win: Essential Quality

Place: Known Agenda

Show: Highly Motivated

Reasoning:

Louisville-based trainer Brad Cox seems confident Essential Quality can buck the trend and win on Saturday, regardless of track conditions.

"We feel like we have a little bit of a homecourt advantage with all three horses having won over the strip," Cox said, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier-Journal. "So that's a positive, especially with Essential Quality having won in the mud. ... If the track was wet, I don't think it would affect Essential Quality one bit. He seems to coast over a wet track."

Rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday in Louisville but things are supposed to dry up Friday and Saturday for the race, per Weather.com.

KentuckyDerby.com:

Joe Kristufek:

Derby

  1. Hot Rod Charlie
  2. Mandaloun
  3. King Fury
  4. Essential Quality
  5. O Besos
  6. Rock Your World
  7. Midnight Bourbon
  8. Highly Motivated
  9. Known Agenda
  10. Super Stock

Ed Derosa:

Derby

  1. Highly Motivated
  2. Essential Quality
  3. O Besos
  4. Keepmeinmind
  5. Dynamic One
  6. Sainthood
  7. Midnight Bourbon
  8. Rock Your World
  9. Hot Rod Charlie
  10. Soup and Sandwich

James Scully:

Derby

  1. Hot Rod Charlie
  2. Midnight Bourbon
  3. Essential Quality
  4. Known Agenda
  5. King Fury
  6. Mandaloun
  7. Medina Spirit
  8. Highly Motivated
  9. Rock Your World
  10. O Besos

Kellie Reilly:

Derby

  1. Essential Quality
  2. Rock Your World
  3. Known Agenda
  4. Hot Rod Charlie
  5. Highly Motivated
  6. Medina Spirit
  7. Midnight Bourbon
  8. O Besos
  9. Dynamic One
  10. Super Stock

Vance Hanson:

Derby

  1. Essential Quality
  2. Hot Rod Charlie
  3. King Fury
  4. Rock Your World
  5. Mandaloun
  6. Medina Spirit
  7. Midnight Bourbon
  8. Known Agenda
  9. Highly Motivated
  10. Sainthood

Scott Shapiro:

Derby

  1. Dynamic One
  2. Mandaloun
  3. Essential Quality
  4. Highly Motivated
  5. King Fury
  6. O Besos
  7. Hot Rod Charlie
  8. Rock Your World
  9. Medina Spirit
  10. Known Agenda

Odds:

That's all we have on the Derby.

Now, for all you NBA, NHL and MLB heads, we have you covered:

Find out where the sharp money is laying.

NBA:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NBA Line Projections:

NHL:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NHL Line Projections:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB Line Projections:

How to look at this:

  1. This shows you where the bets (#) and the amount of money ($) are laying down across different bets.
  2. The interesting stuff is when the number of tickets and the amount of money differs.  

Do with it what you will!


We got this out late, but PSG is currently up 1-o on Man City at half time in the UEFA Champion's League.

Many experts picked PSG ahead of the match.  Looks like that might hold - although a smart bet may be on a Draw and a PSG win (hedge).

Happy betting!


We'll have more lines, more analysis, more opportunities and more picks from around the sports world next week.  Be sure to subscribe to premium if you want to make sure you don't miss a thing and see regular updates regarding the sharp money: https://www.bettorsecrets.com/subscribe/.

Want to see more?  Write us at michael@bettorsecrets.com.

We'll see you again next week.  Good luck out there!


Where to Place Bets:

United States:

Physical Sportsbooks Allowed: AK, DE, IL, MI, MT, NM, NY, NC

Full Mobile Betting Allowed: CO, IN, NH, NJ, OR, PA, RI, WV: Mobile Betting Allowed

Limited Mobile Betting Allowed:  IA (need to register in person), NV (need to register in person), MS (only permitted within casino)

Legalized, but on hold: TN, VA, WA, DC, MD, OH, SD, LA


 

← 💸 UEFA Champions League Semifinal: Real Madrid vs. Chelsea
💸 UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 →

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