💸 After the NCAA Tournament + The Masters

• 10 min read
💸 After the NCAA Tournament + The Masters

NCAA Tournament Retro:

And just like that the undefeated season crumbles.

Well, I don't think many were predicting the beat down that Baylor put on Gonzaga.  Gonzaga came in as 4.5 point favorites.  Here is where the money was laying heading into the game (courtesy of DraftKings):

This is interesting - people were fairly split on the spread bet, but most of the moneyline bet was on Baylor.  Perhaps the Sharps knew something that the public did not - or people were hedging their bets by taking one side of the moneyline and the other side of the spread.

However, that UCLA-Gonzaga Final 4 game shows that the Sharps don't know everything.  The smart money overwhelmingly bet on Gonzaga to cover - with a -14.5 spread.  Needless to say, that one didn't pan out.  

And if it wasn't for a couple bounces, UCLA might have well pulled that one out.

And there goes the 2021 NCAA tournament.  Now, on to the Masters:

The Masters:  

Didn't we just have The Masters?  Well, it feels like that because it was just 5 months ago on Nov 12, 2020 – Nov 15, 2020.

But, now that we've reached some level of normalcy, they are rebooting the Masters for 2021 in April like they usually would.  

Here are some predictions for the tournament at Augusta around the sports world:

ESPN:

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner: Justin Thomas

Reasoning: Since 2018, he's found himself inside the top 20, including fourth in November.

David Bearman, ESPN Sports Betting
Winner: Cameron Smith

Reasoning: He's in the top 25 in strokes gained: total, putting and around the green, all perfect for the challenge of Augusta National.

Michael Collins, ESPN.com
Winner: Jon Rahm

Reasoning: Jon Rahm's wife Kelley gave birth to their first child last week (his reasoning - not ours remember)

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner: Collin Morikawa

Reasoning: Morikawa is the best iron player in the world.

Chris Fallica, ESPN Stats & Information
Winner: Justin Thomas

Reasoning: He's improved his finish each year at Augusta National, and there aren't many iron players out there like him right now.

Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com
Winner: Jon Rahm

Reasoning: Rahm's three straight top-10 finishes at Augusta and No. 3 ranking should do the trick.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com
Winner: Rory McIlroy

Reasoning: For once, Rory can play without pressure.  Low expectations given recent play.

Doug Kezirian, ESPN Sports Betting
Winner: Dustin Johnson

Reasoning: He's the betting favorite for a reason. He dominated the field at Augusta in November.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell, ESPN.com
Winner: Dustin Johnson

Reasoning: He's finished T-10 or higher in his past five starts at the Masters.

Anita Marks, ESPN Sports Betting
Winner: Bryson DeChambeau

Reasoning: DeChambeau checks several boxes, along with being one of the most cerebral golfers on tour, but I'm rolling with Bryson because of his putting skills (top five on firm and fast bentgrass his last 24 rounds).

Andy North, ESPN
Winner: Jordan Spieth

Reasoning: He loves Augusta National, has great memories there, he has his confidence back and he's making putts from all over the place. Plus, this would be a great story.

Nick Pietruszkiewicz, ESPN.com
Winner: Tony Finau

Reasoning: Rolling with Finau, who been here three times and has two top 10s.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner: Justin Thomas

Reasoning: Augusta National is a second-shot course, and few players are better than JT when it comes to approach shots.

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winner: Jordan Spieth

Reasoning: I talked to Andy North. He told me Jordan Spieth would win. So there you go.

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner: Justin Thomas

Reasoning: Don't ask stupid questions!

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winner: Jordan Spieth

Reasoning: He's back.

Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com
Winner: Jordan Spieth

Reasoning: I am 100 percent overreacting to Spieth's win last week, and I'm here for all of it.

Scott Van Pelt
Winner: Justin Thomas

Reasoning: The trend line at for him at Augusta is very good. The Players win only adds confidence.

CBS Sports:

The Sportsline model from CBS Sports has some predictions:

  1. DeChambeau falters: One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Masters 2021: Bryson DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, barely cracks the top 10.  

    DeChambeau is hitting fewer than 60 percent of fairways off the tee, which can cause plenty of trouble at Augusta National.
  2. Another surprise: Patrick Reed, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title.

    Reed has added three wins to his resume since some struggles, winning the 2019 Northern Trust, 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship and 2021 Farmers Insurance Open. In 2020, he finished 13th or better in all three major championships that were played, while his putting can make him a factor in any given week.

New York Post:

Ian O'Connor:

Bryson DeChambeau: He was all over the place in the November Masters because, well, because of everything. Expectations, dizzy spells, too hellbent on playing Powerball. He learned from his mistakes and will add the green jacket to his U.S. Open victory at Winged Foot.

Jordan Spieth: Yes, he will be haunted forever as the master of his own disaster on the 12th hole. But Spieth has the hot hand, he’s learned how to win again, and he has proven he knows how to win the green jacket. He will be right there.

Dustin Johnson: Now that the pressure’s off for DJ, he might feel liberated to unleash his freakish talent on this field and course and break his own Masters scoring record of 20-under.

Scottie Scheffler: Another relatively hot hand coming off his series of impressive conquests at the Match Play two weeks ago in advancing to the final. Has the weaponry to win multiple majors.

Rory McIlroy: Yeah, I know, this place has taken up permanent residence in his head. But the final leg of the career Grand Slam is going to happen for Rory at some point. I think.

Mark Carnnizzaro:

Rory McIlroy: Yes, his play has been inconsistent. Yes, he just changed his swing coach. And yes, there’s the pressure of completing the career Grand Slam. But the best stories so often emerge at Augusta, and McIlroy winning a green jacket qualifies as just that.

Jordan Spieth: Always pick the player in form. Spieth is not only in form, but he seems to play the Masters well whether he’s in good form or not. Tough to win back to back, especially after an emotional win in Texas, but he’s feeling it right now.

Jon Rahm: His wife just gave birth to their first child last week. Aside from Rahm’s game being a perfect fit for Augusta, that distraction might be exactly what he needs to free his mind.

Daniel Berger: He should have been qualified for the November Masters and wasn’t. He’s still in good form. Maybe this is his time.

2021 Masters odds (to win)

Dustin Johnson 9-1
Jordan Spieth 10-1
Justin Thomas 10-1
Bryson DeChambeau 11-1
Jon Rahm 12-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Patrick Reed 28-1
Collin Morikawa 30-1
Lee Westwood 30-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Daniel Berger 33-1
Viktor Hovland 33-1
Webb Simpson 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Cameron Smith 35-1
Sung-Jae Im 35-1
Scottie Scheffler 35-1
Tyrrell Hatton 35-1
Paul Casey 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 45-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 45-1
Jason Day 45-1
Sergio Garcia 45-1
Joaquin Niemann 50-1
Bubba Watson 50-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Will Zalatoris 66-1
Louis Oosthuizen 66-1
Justin Rose 70-1
Abraham Ancer 70-1
Harris English 80-1
Corey Conners 80-1
Billy Horschel 80-1
Max Homa 80-1
Jason Kokrak 80-1
Matt Kuchar 80-1
Matt Wallace 80-1
Francesco Molinari 90-1
Matthew Wolff 90-1
Victor Perez 90-1
Shane Lowry 90-1
Brian Harman 90-1
Marc Leishman 100-1
Phil Mickelson 100-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1
Ryan Palmer 100-1
Matt Jones 125-1
Cameron Champ 125-1
Dylan Frittelli 125-1
Ian Poulter 125-1
Kevin Kisner 125-1
Danny Willett 125-1
Carlos Ortiz 125-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Sebastian Munoz 150-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Bernd Wiesberger 200-1
Brendon Todd 200-1
Lanto Griffin 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Charl Schwartzel 250-1
C.T. Pan 250-1
Martin Laird 250-1
Michael Thompson 250-1
Henrik Stenson 250-1
Brian Gay 300-1
Hudson Swafford 400-1
Jimmy Walker 400-1
Stewart Cink 400-1
Bernhard Langer 500-1
Robert Streb 500-1
Jim Herman 500-1
Ty Strafaci 750-1
Fred Couples 750-1
Joe Long 1000-1
Charles Osborne 1000-1
Mike Weir 1000-1
Vijay Singh 1000-1
Jose Maria Olazabal 1500-1
Sandy Lyle 2500-1
Larry Mize 2500-1
Ian Woosnam 4000-1

UEFA Champions League:

We haven't forgotten you soccer fans!  With the quarter finals kicking off today, here are the matchups and the lines:

Here are the odds according to FiveThirtyEight of each remaining team winning the final:

Here are some predictions for the matchups around the sports world:

CBS Soccer:

Rongen's take: No Robert Lewandowski? Neymar should be back, but that is a mixed blessing.

Pick: Bayern Munich 2, PSG 1

Romano's take: Kylian Mbappe and his teammates know that the opportunity to challenge Bayern without Robert Lewandowski is huge.

Pick: Bayern Munich 1, PSG 2

Echegaray's take: No Robert Lewandowski is incredibly important but due to squad depth, it's not detrimental.

Pick: Bayern Munich 2, PSG 3

Chiu's take: Robert Lewandowski's absence had me second-guessing Bayern Munich winning this tie for a second, but after seeing the Marco Verratti news, I am back to expecting an even match.

Pick: Bayern Munich 1, PSG 1

Johnson's take: Both sides are missing key men in Robert Lewandowski and Marco Verratti while PSG's defeat over the weekend to Lille as Bayern beat Leipzig puts Mauricio Pochettino's men back in the underdog role.

Pick: Bayern Munich 1, PSG 1

Benge's take: he weekend saw Bayern and PSG both play games that required mental fortitude, composure and an ability to punish mistakes. Only one of them showed it, Bayern winning at RB Leipzig.

Pick: Bayern Munich 1, PSG 0

Herrera's take: Injury troubles for both teams means it might be an open affair.

Pick: Bayern Munich 2, PSG 2

Goodman's take: This is simply not a vintage PSG side.

Pick: Bayern Munich 3, PSG 1

Rongen's take: Porto are exceptionally well-organized under Sergio Conceição, but the two legs against Atletico Madrid in the last 16 are arguably as good a performance as Chelsea ever produced under Thomas Tuchel.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 2

Romano's take: Porto have great defensive skills that have already put Juventus in crisis, but Chelsea are playing for the opportunity of an entire season.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 2

Echegaray's take: After the 5-2 destruction at the hands of West Brom, I don't know anything anymore.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 0

Chiu's take: Porto's two top goalscorers, Medhi Taremi and Sergio Olivera, will be out due to suspension.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 0

Johnson's take: After Thomas Tuchel saw his team's defensive solidity disintegrate against WBA, the German will emphasize the importance of a clean sheet in Seville.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 0

Benge's take: That 5-2 defeat to West Brom is surely an aberration for a Chelsea side who can be a bit dull but are undoubtedly secure and effective under Thomas Tuchel.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 1

Herrera's take: Porto will be quick to try and counter against Chelsea but it won't be enough against a Blues side that went undefeated in the month of March before the weekend slip-up to West Brom under new manager Thomas Tuchel.

Pick: Porto 1, Chelsea 2

Goodman's take: Chelsea have been a defensive possession machine since Thomas Tuchel took over, and it won't change away from home against Porto.

Pick: Porto 0, Chelsea 1

Ok, let's see what else is trending and where the sharps are laying..

Find out where the sharp money is laying.

NBA:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

NHL:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

MLB:

Pulled from sportsinsights.com

How to look at this:

  1. This shows you where the bets (#) and the amount of money ($) are laying down across different bets.
  2. The interesting stuff is when the number of tickets and the amount of money differs.  

Do with it what you will!


We'll have more lines, more analysis, more opportunities and more picks from around the sports world next week.  Be sure to subscribe to premium if you want to make sure you don't miss a thing and see regular updates regarding the sharp money: https://www.bettorsecrets.com/subscribe/.

Want to see more?  Write us at michael@bettorsecrets.com.

We'll see you again next week.  Good luck out there!


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